Research§ 01

Elections, parties and surveys

Since 2010 I have led the Economic and Social Research Council's Northern Ireland General Election studies — the main academic survey series measuring how, and why, people in Northern Ireland vote. Alongside these I have run membership surveys of individual parties and co-edited the Britain Votes series on UK general elections.

Programme § 01.1

Northern Ireland General Election studies

Five successive ESRC-funded surveys, fielded after the 2010, 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2024 general elections, form a continuous record of electoral behaviour in Northern Ireland across a period covering the Assembly's suspension and restoration, Brexit, and the emergence of Sinn Féin as the largest party. The series received the Political Studies Association's Pippa Norris Prize for Outstanding Contribution to Research in 2026.

Vote choice, turnout and transfers across both the Westminster and Assembly systems.
Constitutional preference, including attitudes to a border poll and to a united Ireland.
National identity, religion and the growing group of voters who identify with neither unionism nor nationalism.

Programme § 01.2

Party membership surveys

Northern Ireland's parties had, until recently, almost no systematic membership data. With colleagues I have surveyed the members of the Democratic Unionist Party, the Ulster Unionist Party and the Alliance Party, and earlier the Orange Order, producing the evidence base for four books published by Oxford University Press, Manchester University Press and Irish Academic Press.

Democratic Unionist Party — Leverhulme Trust, 2012–14.
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland — British Academy, 2021–22.
Orange Order members — ESRC, 2006–08.
Alliance Party — ESRC, 2001.

Programme § 01.3

UK general elections

I have co-edited four volumes in the Britain Votes series with Oxford University Press, covering the 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019 general elections, and contribute the devolved-nations analysis to the long-running British General Election series. Related work covers the Recall of MPs Act 2015 and its first uses.

Programme § 01.4

Voting age reform and youth participation

I chaired the Youth Citizenship Commission, appointed by the Prime Minister in 2008, and later led a Leverhulme Trust project examining the historical and contemporary debates over lowering the voting age. The work traces how the UK became the first democracy to enfranchise 18-year-olds, why votes at 16 became a partisan question, and what a workable implementation of reform would require.

Evidence to Dáil Éireann's Constitutional Committee on votes at 16 (2010) and to a joint committee of both Houses of Parliament on the age of the franchise (2016).
Work on citizenship education, National Citizen Service and youth political engagement.

Funding § 01.5

Funded election and franchise projects

All research funding

Award values are as recorded in Professor Tonge's own curriculum vitae; funder and dates are corroborated by his University of Liverpool profile. PI = Principal Investigator, CI = Co-Investigator.

2024–2025

The 2024 Northern Ireland General Election Survey

Economic and Social Research Council · £353,000 · Principal Investigator

2019–2020

The 2019 Northern Ireland General Election Survey

Economic and Social Research Council · £78,000 · Principal Investigator

2018–2020

An evaluation of historical and contemporary debates on lowering the voting age

Leverhulme Trust · £119,980 · Principal Investigator

2017–2018

The 2017 Northern Ireland General Election Survey

Economic and Social Research Council · £51,215 · Principal Investigator